February 21, 2025 | Quiet Counsel | 4 min read

In “Outlook 2025, Part I: Evolution of the American Ethos,” we traced the impact of market disruptions and interest rate policy on the American balance sheet, to gauge the risk of US indebtedness and provide a backdrop for our expectations for interest rates and market potential going forward. In this companion piece, we offer our take on Trump’s (very early, but dramatic) stated plans. See “Trump, Trudeau, and the Markets” for additional detail on our thinking as of January 20, 2025. Executive Summary Trump’s Policies May Disrupt Trade & Immigration – Tariffs may raise costs on both sides of the...