August 17, 2026 | Quiet Counsel | 9 min read

Fifty years in the markets have taught me to distinguish the fever from the disease.A little over 50 years ago, I was starting out as a young economist specializing in energy. I thought I understood market cycles. The markets soon taught me humility.I have watched the same story play out ever since. Capital rushes toward whatever sector is meant to define the decade. Expectations run hot, outrun what the arithmetic can deliver, and the correction – predictable but unavoidable – arrives in the end. Oil, then commercial real estate, then telecom, then structured credit, and today artificial intelligence. Over the...